Who will stand up to defend Central Asia against the Taliban?


Who will stand up to defend Central Asia against the Taliban?
Who will stand up to defend Central Asia against the Taliban?

Taking advantage of the unstable situation in Afghanistan, many countries are trying to acquire Russia's Central Asian neighbors. Where will this risky gamble go?

Central Asia is becoming the focus of the world's attention. The Taliban are taking back many provinces in Afghanistan, and thousands of senior officials and troops working for the pro-American regime are fleeing to neighboring countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Major countries are racing to compete for influence in the region.

Ankara is also urgently consolidating its influence in Central Asia. Turkey implements economic projects, ideological projects, establishes "Turkishism", "Turkish market", conducts military cooperation. Turkey recently helped Azerbaijan win the war in Karabakh, and this is an opportunity for President Erdogan to build on his achievements in the region.

China is a formidable opponent for Turkey

For Central Asian countries, China has an advantage over Turkey in terms of geography and economic potential. Beijing is primarily interested in the trade, energy and transportation of the Central Asia-Kaspian region. To achieve these ambitions, Beijing has launched the "One Belt One Road" project. This made Washington very unhappy.

Therefore, despite withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, the US still wants to join the game. The US administration has repeatedly proposed to countries in the region the issue of establishing military bases. However, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have not had any positive signals.

Neither country wants to be drawn into a Sino-American confrontation. Moreover, these countries are facing an existential danger, which is: can the Taliban (the organization banned from operating in Russia) be able to invade their country from Afghanistan?

Fears are very likely to come true

Recently, a delegation of the Taliban visited Russia. In Moscow, the Taliban made a commitment that they only operate within the territory of Afghanistan and not spread to Central Asian countries.

However, the reality shows that these statements are most likely just words. For three reasons: First, Taliban fighters can disobey their command. Second, refugees from Afghanistan are keen to destabilize neighboring countries.

Third, the young generation of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are mostly unemployed and in a hopeless future, for them the Taliban may be the thing that helps them realize justice, moreover Tajikistan and Uzbekistan though The stars are still far more attractive places than Afghanistan – a fertile ground for exploitation.

In particular, the Taliban have shown their strength in relations with the US, by issuing an ultimatum demanding that the US withdraw all its troops back home by September 11 - a very meaningful milestone - date America suffered the largest terrorist attack in history. US President Joe Biden has also pledged to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by August 31, 2021.

So who can Central Asia count on?

The only force that can defend Central Asia is the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB), with Russia taking the lead in protecting the rest.

It is not without reason that the Taliban have come to Moscow to pledge that there will be no shady plans in the region, perhaps precisely because Tajikistan is a member of the ODKB. There is only one country that can protect Tajikistan's borders from being impregnable and that is the Russian Federation, not Turkey, not China, and even less the United States.

Google Tech News

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